Report No. CC 97-20                                    April 25, 1997
                                  
                 FCC RELEASES REVISED STAFF MODEL 
                   OF INDUSTRY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
                                  
                           CC DOCKET 96-45
                           CC DOCKET 96-262

     The FCC's Industry Analysis Division, Common Carrier Bureau, and the Competition
Division, Office of General Counsel, have released a revised staff model of the telecommunications
industry.   The model contains over 200 specifications relating to such factors as  growth rates,
pricing trends, demand elasticities, and cost relationships.  Based on these specifications, the model
projects such outcomes as telephone service prices, output levels and industry revenues.  Users can
alter the model's specifications to reflect their own assumptions.  The user can then experiment with
a variety of alternative policy options and examine the changes in outcomes arising from differing
policies.

     The model, using publicly-available, industry-wide information, was created by Doron Fertig
and Jim Lande.  The new Fertig-Lande model is an expanded and improved version of a similar
model, released on June 17, 1996.  The earlier version contained a large number of token values--
typically "1919" or "19.19".   The new version of the model contains initial values for the
specifications which makes the model more "user-friendly."  These values are typically in the range
of those recommended and used by commenters on the previous version of the model.  Users should
input their own values to run simulations.  The presence or absence of any particular assumption,
value, option, or specification should not be perceived as a Commission decision or a proposed
Commission decision.  

     The model is contained in a Lotus 1-2-3, Release 5 for Windows, spreadsheet and occupies
3.6 megabytes of hard disk space.  While the spreadsheet can be loaded in Excel, Quattro Pro, and
newer versions of Lotus, the model may not function correctly on a platform other than Lotus 
1-2-3, Release 5 for Windows.

     Copies of the model may be found in CC Dockets 96-45 and 96-262 and may be purchased
by calling International Transcription Services, Inc. (ITS) at (202) 857-3800.  The model may also
be downloaded from the Common Carrier Bureau's home page on the World Wide Web.  The home
page can be accessed directly (http://www.fcc.gov/ccb/) or through a link from the main FCC home
page (http://www.fcc.gov).  The model can also be downloaded from the FCC-State Link computer
bulletin board at (202) 418-0241 [BBB filename MODELV38.ZIP].

                               - FCC -

     For further information, Doron Fertig at (202) 418-1869 (e-mail: dfertig@fcc.gov) or 
          Jim Lande at (202) 418-0948 (email: jlande@fcc.gov).