Keith Brown.
Media Bureau Staff Research Paper 2004-1 (Dec 2004) employs survival and duration analysis to determine how subscriber levels affect the cable networks’ survival probabilities. It finds that a cable network that grows at the calculated mean rate requires approximately 42 million subscribers by its tenth year to obtain a 70 percent chance of survival over its first ten years.
Links:
[1] http://transition.fcc.gov/papers/survivdata.dta
[2] http://transition.fcc.gov/papers/statacommandsredacteddata.doc
[3] http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-255118A1.pdf